I think that this moment in America favors an Oscar win for One Battle After Another, because the fascist repression imagined by the filmmakers is, to our shock, happening now. The movie depicts the US Army running amok in a brutal political crackdown – but Gestapo-like state terror is being perpetrated by ICE In Minneapolis today.
Amazingly, writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson invented the movie’s story without even knowing who would win the 2024 US Presidential election, let alone the emergence of the previously unthinkable American Gestapo.
This year’s Oscar horse race is between One Battle After Another and Sinners. Those two movies, along with Frankenstein, Hamnet and Marty Supreme account for 56 of the total nominations. It’s kinda like in the summer, when 80% of the movie screens are monopolized by the same 3 or 4 franchise popcorn movies. But this year’s Oscar nominations are pretty solid.
Here are more of my reflections:
- It Was Just an Accident (good news): First of all, I’m glad that it got nominated for Best International Picture because there was no way that this film, which trashes the current Iranian regime, was going to get submitted to the Academy by Iran. I had forgotten that, although directed by an Iranian and shot in Iran with an Iranian cast and crew, it is technically a French film because of the producers; let’s hear it for the French for submitting this over a film by a French director! I am rooting for it to win Best International Film and Best Original Screenplay.
- It Was Just an Accident (bad news): I am miffed that this movie, tied for first in my 2025 list, was not nominated for Best Picture; (there were TEN slots, people). And I am incensed that Jafar Panahi was overlooked for Best Director. In an act of incredible courage, Panahi wrote and directed this harsh critique of the Iranian government, and shot it secretly, including even some scenes in in plain sight on the streets of Tehran. Wow.
- Frankenstein: Guillermo del Toro’s omission from Best Director tells me that Frankenstein is unlikely to clean up at the Oscars. But it should win for production design, costumes, score and, of course, makeup.
- Train Dreams: This fine film is nominated for Best Picture, where it has no chance to pass Sinners and One Battle After Another. I kinda hope it wins for Adapted Screenplay. It was a mistake not to nominate Joel Edgerton for Best Actor.
- F1: I don’t have a problem generally with a popular, well-made, popcorn movie getting nominated for Best Picture. But it looks to me that it crowded out It Was Just an Accident, and that’s not OK.
- Best Actress: Jesse Buckley is justifiably a lock for Best Actress for Hamnet. I was surprised that Jennifer Lawrence was not nominated for Die My Love, but her character was difficult to watch and she wouldn’t have beat out Buckley anyway.
- Best Supporting Actress: The first chapter of Another Battle After Another would have been completely different without Teyana Taylor’s electrifying performance – it’s absolutely the definition of a great supporting performance. I am glad that Inga Ibdotter Lilleaas, an actress I had never heard of, was nominated for Sentimental Value; as I noted in my review, her performance was as least as good as those of the heavy hitters Stellan Skarsgard and Renate Reinsve. And, speaking of Sentimental Value, I defy anyone to explain to me why Elle Fanning’s adequate performance was worthy of an Oscar nomination.
- Best Supporting Actor: I am elated that Jacob Elordi was nominated for imbuing Frankenstein’s Creature with such grace and fluidity and for expressing such emotional depth under all that makeup. I’m rooting for Elordi, but a win by Sean Penn would also be justified.
- Casting: This will our first chance to intuit what Academy voters are looking for in this new category. I have no clue.
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Because I haven’t seen the competition, I can’t say whether this film will or should win. But it is an admirable and endearing portrait of personal courage amidst Putin’s outrageous domestic propaganda about his Ukraine War. You can stream it from Amazon and AppleTV.
The Oscars telecast is on March 15. To be Oscar-literate, try to see One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams and Hamnet in the next seven weeks.
